Bigly Stable — Trump Position Tracker

Easter: Power Plant Day

2026-04-05T00:00:00Z

"Open the F***in' Strait, you crazy bastards"

Hours after rescue of downed colonel, posted most inflammatory message. Threatened 'Power Plant Day and Bridge Day' on Tuesday. Ended with 'Praise be to Allah' on Easter Sunday.

Colonel rescued after 2 days evading capture. Pope Leo called for peace. Legal experts warned of telegraphing war crimes under Geneva Conventions.

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48-hr ultimatum redux

2026-04-04T00:00:00Z

"All Hell will reign down on them"

Reiterated April 6 deadline. 'Time is running out — 48 hours.' Typo ('reign' for 'rain'). Same day F-15E shot down over Iran — first US warplane lost.

F-15E Strike Eagle shot down. A-10 also hit. Iran demonstrated continued air defense capability.

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Economic Victory & Nuclear Success

2026-04-04T00:00:00Z

"getting rid of a Nuclear Iran"

Trump claims significant economic gains alongside the elimination of Iran's nuclear program.

Posted on Easter Sunday amidst ongoing tensions over the Strait of Hormuz.

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Seize Oil for Fortune

2026-04-03T00:00:00Z

"OPEN THE HORMUZ STRAIT, TAKE THE OIL"

Trump threatens to seize Iranian oil to generate profit while ensuring the Hormuz Strait remains open.

Posted during the Hormuz Strait crisis following the rescue of a downed U.S. aviator, preceding the Easter ultimatum.

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Ceasefire / Stone Ages

2026-04-01T00:00:00Z

"Back to the Stone Ages"

Same day: claimed Iran asked for ceasefire AND threatened to bomb Iran 'back to the Stone Ages.' Pledged to attack power plants, oil, desalination. Next day said he could walk away without a deal.

Tehran denied requesting ceasefire. 100+ intl law experts warned of Geneva Convention violations.

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10-day extension

2026-03-26T00:00:00Z

"War to end in 2-3 weeks"

Extended pause in energy strikes by 10 days (until April 6). Told nation war would last 2-3 more weeks. Clearest off-ramp signal.

Indirect talks via Pakistan's military chief. Iran rejected US 15-point proposal.

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CNBC

Section 301 probes

2026-03-26T00:00:00Z

"Unfair trading practices everywhere"

Announced new Section 301 investigations into China, Vietnam, Taiwan, Mexico, Japan, EU, and dozens of other economies. Using the 150-day Section 122 window to build permanent tariff authority.

After Supreme Court killed IEEPA tariffs, pivoting to Trade Act authority. Manufacturing jobs down 89,000 since Liberation Day. Economy added only 181,000 jobs in 2025.

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Tax Foundation

"Iran wants a deal"

2026-03-24T00:00:00Z

"Deal so badly"

Claimed US 'won' and Iran desperate to negotiate. Said Iran agreed to 'never have a nuclear weapon.' Ran simultaneously with continued strikes.

Contradicted by Iran's stated positions. Own advisers confused about actual intentions.

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48-hr Hormuz deadline

2026-03-21T00:00:00Z

"Open the strait without threat"

Issued 48-hour ultimatum to reopen the Strait. When deadline passed, extended it — beginning a pattern of threats then extensions.

Strait carries ~20% of world oil. IEA called it largest energy disruption since 1970s.

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NBC News

Hormuz mines threat

2026-03-13T00:00:00Z

"Remove mines IMMEDIATELY"

Warned Iran to remove naval mines from Hormuz or face 'military consequences at a level never seen before.' Claimed US destroyed 10 Iranian mine-laying vessels.

Also questioned whether Iran's soccer team should attend 2026 World Cup.

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Iran International

"We've won"

2026-03-03T00:00:00Z

"Freedom for the people"

Declared victory, said Iran's military 'obliterated.' Alternated between regime change ('take back your country') and limited goals. Compared to Venezuela operation.

US casualties acknowledged. Ongoing strikes continued despite victory claims.

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Strikes expand

2026-03-01T00:00:00Z

"Obliterate their navy"

Strikes expanded to military bases, government facilities, infrastructure. Civilian casualties reported including school strikes. Iran closed Strait of Hormuz in retaliation.

Iran retaliated with missiles at US bases. Oil prices surged 60%+.

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War via Truth Social

2026-02-28T00:00:00Z

"Major combat operations in Iran"

At 2:30 AM, posted 8-minute video announcing war. Called for Iranians to 'take over your government.' Khamenei killed in initial strikes. War announced on personal social media.

Joint US-Israeli operation launched during nuclear negotiations. Iran's recent proposal viewed by some analysts as potentially favorable.

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SOTU: nuclear threat

2026-02-24T00:00:00Z

"Iran rebuilding nuclear weapons"

State of the Union: accused Iran of reviving nuclear weapons and developing missiles that 'could soon reach the American homeland.' Set stage for strikes four days later.

Claims contradicted by US intelligence. Geneva talks produced no breakthrough. F-22s deployed to Israeli base.

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Supreme Court kills tariffs

2026-02-20T00:00:00Z

"We will find another way"

Supreme Court ruled 6-3 that IEEPA does not authorize tariffs (Learning Resources v. Trump). All Liberation Day and fentanyl tariffs invalidated. Trump immediately announced replacement 10% tariffs under Section 122, then raised to 15% via Truth Social.

Roberts wrote the majority opinion joined by Gorsuch and Barrett among others. Section 122 tariffs limited to 15% and 150 days.

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Pivot to diplomacy

2026-02-06T00:00:00Z

"Preferred diplomatic solution"

Sharp pivot. US engaged in indirect talks with Iran in Muscat, mediated by Oman. Trump briefly softened tone. First negotiation attempt since the January crisis.

Mediated by Omani FM Badr Albusaidi. Iran emphasized progress depends on consultations back in capitals.

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Military buildup

2026-01-23T00:00:00Z

"Armada heading to the Middle East"

Announced USS Abraham Lincoln carrier strike group heading to region. Largest US military buildup since 2003 Iraq invasion. Cancelled all meetings with Iranian officials.

EU announced IRGC proscription. US imposed new sanctions on Iranian security officials.

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UK Parliament

Greenland tariffs reversed

2026-01-21T00:00:00Z

"Framework of a future deal"

Four days after threatening 8 allies with tariffs over Greenland, reversed course at Davos. Said he reached a 'framework' deal with NATO's Rutte and would not impose the tariffs. No details on what the framework actually contained.

Met with NATO Secretary General Mark Rutte at Davos. European leaders had warned of 'dangerous downward spiral.'

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Greenland tariffs on 8 allies

2026-01-17T00:00:00Z

"Tell Denmark to get them out"

Imposed 10% tariffs on Denmark, UK, Finland, France, Germany, Netherlands, Norway, and Sweden for opposing US control of Greenland. Threatened increase to 25% by June. Used trade policy as geopolitical weapon.

Part of push to acquire Greenland. EU discussed $108B in retaliatory tariffs. Thousands protested in Denmark.

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Inciting uprising

2026-01-13T00:00:00Z

"TAKE OVER YOUR INSTITUTIONS"

With 36,000+ killed by security forces on Jan 8-9, Trump escalated to actively encouraging regime change. Also warned against executing protesters, saying the US would take 'strong action.'

Iran's internet shut down Jan 8. Protests reached 78 cities. Regime killed tens of thousands in crackdown.

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Pro-protester warning

2026-01-02T00:00:00Z

"Locked and loaded and ready to go"

As economic protests erupted across Iran, Trump warned that if Iran 'violently kills peaceful protesters,' the US would 'come to their rescue.' Established a red line linking protester safety to potential US intervention.

Iranian rial collapsed, sparking the largest protests since 2022. At least 7 killed in violence surrounding demonstrations.

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Bazaar protests erupt

2025-12-28T00:00:00Z

"The people of Iran are rising up"

Tehran's Grand Bazaar shuttered as shopkeepers protested the rial hitting 1.4 million/USD. Protests spread to multiple provinces. Trump expressed support for protesters, setting up the January 2026 red line.

Rial doubled in collapse since January. 40% inflation. Protests echoed 2022 Mahsa Amini movement but driven by economic desperation from sanctions.

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Geopolitical Economy Report

China year-long extension

2025-11-10T00:00:00Z

"Substantially reducing China's trade deficit"

Extended tariff reduction for one year through November 2026. US lowered fentanyl tariffs by 10 percentage points. Trump-Xi meeting produced the agreement. Markets rallied on stability signal.

After the October scare, a longer-term deal. China agreed to purchase commitments. But many analysts skeptical it would hold.

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Sanctions crushing Iran

2025-10-18T00:00:00Z

"Their economy is in total freefall"

UN sanctions fully reimposed. Iranian rial plummeting from ~700,000/USD in January to over 1 million. Trump highlighted economic devastation as proof maximum pressure was working.

Snapback sanctions fully active. Iran's oil exports cratered. Food prices 72% higher year-over-year. Water and electricity shortages widespread.

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China rare earths tariff

2025-10-10T00:00:00Z

"Massive increase of tariffs"

Posted 'massive increase of tariffs' on Truth Social, announcing new tariffs targeting Chinese rare earth metals. S&P 500 dropped 2.7% — worst day since Liberation Day. Markets whipsawed again.

Came during the 90-day truce extension. Contradicted the deal-making posture of just months earlier.

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Fortune

Snapback sanctions

2025-08-28T00:00:00Z

"Maximum pressure like never before"

UK, France, and Germany triggered JCPOA snapback mechanism after Iran suspended IAEA cooperation. Full UN sanctions reimposed September 28. Trump amplified the pressure, continuing maximum pressure campaign.

Iran's parliament voted to suspend IAEA cooperation post-war. EU triggered snapback in August, sanctions resumed in late September.

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"POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE"

2025-08-01T00:00:00Z

"MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE"

Posted 'MY POLICIES WILL NEVER CHANGE' on Truth Social regarding tariffs. Had already paused, exempted, reversed, and modified tariffs multiple times since February.

By this point: Feb tariffs paused after 2 days, Liberation Day tariffs paused after 7 days, Canada tariffs on-off-on, auto tariff exemptions granted. The claim contradicted his own track record.

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"THE 12 DAY WAR" ceasefire

2025-06-24T00:00:00Z

"THE CEASEFIRE IS NOW IN EFFECT"

Announced ceasefire in all caps. Congratulated both countries on 'Stamina, Courage, and Intelligence.' Named it 'THE 12 DAY WAR.' Claimed oil prices would 'drop rapidly.' Said Israel would have been 'wiped out' without US B-2 bombers.

Twelve-Day War ended. Iran's nuclear facilities severely damaged. Ceasefire mediated through multiple channels.

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Operation Midnight Hammer

2025-06-21T00:00:00Z

"Complete and total control of the skies"

US launched Operation Midnight Hammer — 7 B-2 bombers and 125+ aircraft hit Iran's nuclear facilities at Fordow, Natanz, and Isfahan. First operational use of GBU-57 bunker busters. 14 MOPs dropped. Trump boasted US had 'complete and total control of the skies over Iran.'

The US's only offensive action in the Twelve-Day War. Targeted uranium enrichment facilities. Pentagon briefing confirmed the operation on June 22.

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"Nothing to do with us"

2025-06-14T00:00:00Z

"The U.S. had nothing to do with the attack"

Distanced US from Israeli strikes while simultaneously warning Iran: 'If we are attacked in any way, the full strength and might of the U.S. Armed Forces will come down on you.'

Iran retaliated with missile strikes. Trump's post denied involvement while threatening massive escalation if Iran targeted US forces.

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Al Jazeera

Israel attacks Iran

2025-06-13T00:00:00Z

"They should have made a deal"

Day 61 of Trump's ultimatum. Israel launched surprise strikes on Iran with Mossad coordination. Trump posted 'Today is day 61. Now they have, perhaps, a second chance!' Claimed US had 'nothing to do with' the attack.

Nuclear talks collapsed. Iran accelerated enrichment. Israel struck without formal US coordination, though Trump had set the stage with the expired deadline.

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China 90-day truce

2025-05-12T00:00:00Z

"A great deal for both countries"

US and China announced 90-day bilateral tariff reduction — from 125% down to 10% on each other's goods. After months of tit-for-tat escalation, a sudden reversal.

Both countries had raised tariffs to punitive levels. The deal reduced rates dramatically but was time-limited.

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60-day ultimatum

2025-04-12T00:00:00Z

"Make a deal or else"

Trump sent letter to Khamenei with 60-day deadline to reach a new nuclear deal. Omani-mediated negotiations began in Rome, with expert-level talks following through April and May.

Maximum pressure campaign restored Feb 2025. Iran enriching uranium to near-weapons grade. Multiple rounds of indirect talks via Oman.

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"GREAT TIME TO BUY!!"

2025-04-09T00:00:00Z

"THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!"

Posted 'THIS IS A GREAT TIME TO BUY!!' on Truth Social. Four hours later announced 90-day pause on reciprocal tariffs above 10% for all countries except China. S&P 500 surged 9.52% — largest one-day gain since 2008. Democrats accused him of market manipulation.

Markets had crashed nearly 20% since Liberation Day. The 'buy' post came hours before the pause announcement. SEC scrutiny followed.

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"Liberation Day"

2025-04-02T00:00:00Z

"Make America wealthy again"

Rose Garden ceremony announcing sweeping 'reciprocal' tariffs on nearly all countries. 10% baseline starting April 5, higher rates for major partners April 9. Promised jobs and factories would come 'roaring back.' Called it a day that would 'go down in history.'

China tariffs raised to 145% total. S&P 500 fell nearly 20% in the following seven weeks.

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25% auto tariffs

2025-03-26T00:00:00Z

"These tariffs are permanent"

Signed 25% tariffs on all imported autos and auto parts under Section 232. Called them 'permanent.' Added $30B in costs to the auto industry. Effective April 3.

World's largest business association said tariffs 'will harm—not help.' GM, Ford, Stellantis all warned of price increases.

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Canada tariffs back on

2025-03-04T00:00:00Z

"No room left for a deal"

Reimposed 25% tariffs on Canada and Mexico after 30-day pause expired. Said there was 'no room left' to negotiate. Two days later exempted many goods. Then doubled steel/aluminum tariffs on Canada to 50%.

Whiplash: tariffs on Feb 1, paused Feb 3, back on Mar 4, exemptions Mar 6, doubled Mar 12. Businesses unable to plan.

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Canada tariffs paused

2025-02-03T00:00:00Z

"Great conversations with Canada"

Two days after imposing 25% tariffs on Canada, paused them for 30 days after Trudeau negotiated a delay. Markets relieved. First of many on-again off-again reversals.

Canada had announced retaliatory tariffs on $30B of US goods. Trump blinked within 48 hours.

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CNBC

Fentanyl emergency tariffs

2025-02-01T00:00:00Z

"National emergency on fentanyl"

Declared national emergency over fentanyl trafficking. Imposed 25% tariffs on Mexico and Canada, 10% on China via IEEPA. First use of emergency powers for tariffs.

Inaugurated Jan 20. Tariffs on USMCA-compliant goods quickly suspended. China fentanyl tariff raised to 20% on March 4.

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